As alternative data has become widely adopted by investment managers, the opportunities to both monetize it and generate consistent alpha have evolved. One of the most notable changes is the growing time window leading up to earnings announcements, in which consumers of alternative data are generating alpha.

In days when alternative data was less influential in shaping market expectations, an investor could deploy capital just a few days prior to an earnings event, rely on the stock’s reaction to a positive or negative surprise the data had signaled, exit the trade, and move on to the next opportunity. This dynamic has changed. Now, much of the alpha is being captured 30–60 days before earnings.

How?

Some investors have learned to detect and integrate early emerging signals from data ahead of others. This ability to extrapolate early trends in data has resulted in earlier trades, improved monetization of an earnings surprise for first movers, and consequently leaving less alpha for late comers.

This shift is what we at Maiden Century term “Time to Insight.” It describes the accelerating pace at which analytics move from raw data to investable signals and trades with conviction. Our CEO covered this concept in a widely-read blog post last year, and today, we’re excited to share more details on Maiden Century’s very own Time to Insight feature, available to clients upon request.

Time to Insight on Maiden Century’s IDEA Platform

Time to Insight is designed to help investors analyze and visualize how forecast trends evolve in the lead-up to earnings. By monitoring changes to KPI forecasts over time, the analysis reveals signals when they first start to appear, before others can detect and trade on them. The caveat is that the earlier the trend, the less reliable it can be. But fund managers are no strangers to acting on less-than-complete information, in fact, this is part of the normal process for fundamental managers.

With Time to Insight, you can:

1. See Forecasts as Earnings Approach: Track how predictions shift daily, pinpointing when your signals become reliable enough to deploy capital.
2. Balance Early vs. Accurate Data: Assess the trade-off between getting in early and waiting for more accuracy. This helps identify the ideal window to place a trade while maintaining a healthy risk/return profile.
3. Access It Where You Work: The feature is available in the IDEA UI on the Ticker Summary page and as an MRD deliverable with full point-in-time history for deeper analysis. (Ask us for a no-obligation demo)

Forecasting as Much as 180 Days Ahead

We begin forecasting financial and operational metrics for companies up to 180 days before a company’s earnings announcement to detect the earliest signals of an upcoming surprise. As a general rule, these early forecasts are noisier and gradually become more accurate as additional data is collected. In the figure below, you can see how the MAPE decreases the closer we get to earnings. This allows you to quantify how early you can reasonably act on a signal and how waiting affects your trade’s risk and upside potential.

You can compare our forecasts from various lead times—spanning from 180 days before earnings up to the announcement date—against the actual results. This bird’s-eye view helps you pinpoint when forecasts cross a threshold of confidence, guiding better trade timing and position sizing.

At the dataset level, Time to Insight shows forecast errors via two key metrics:

• MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error): Reflects overall accuracy by showing how far off, on average, our forecasts are from actual results.
• MPE (Mean Percent Error): Highlights any consistent bias in the data—are we systematically overestimating or underestimating the underlying metric?

You can also opt to view this from an L4Q (Last Four Quarters) perspective for a more holistic view of performance over time. By visualizing these metrics for multiple periods side by side, you’ll gain a clear snapshot of how forecast accuracy evolves and where it can improve.

Forecast Early with Precast + Validate with TTI & MRD

Only Maiden Century’s clients have the unique analytical toolkit to exploit this new alpha window through a combination of cutting-edge tools built for the purpose of detecting and validating early signals:

• Precast: Generates estimates early, giving you a valuable head start in the market. These estimates are built on top of the data you are subscribed to using our own algorithms and do not come from the vendor themselves.
• Time to Insight (TTI) Widget: Visualizes how forecasts evolve over time, so you can determine the ideal moment to strike.
• MRD Tables: Provide point-in-time historical data, enabling a deep-dive into forecast accuracy and confidence levels at each stage in the window.

Taken together, these tools allow investors to triangulate the strength of a signal along the time axis—empowering them to move quickly while the markets are still trying to process the new data.

The Future of Alpha Generation with Alternative Data

As new data streams and analytical methods gain traction, alpha increasingly belongs to those who act early and with conviction. The most profitable trades in today’s environment aren’t only about capturing the final “last mile” before an earnings announcement—they’re about gleaning an edge in the weeks leading up to that event.

Maiden Century’s Time to Insight feature is designed to help you capture that edge. By adopting our cutting-edge tools—Precast, TTI Widget, and MRD Tables investors are uniquely positioned to anticipate earnings surprises and generate profits ahead of the pack.

Curious to Learn More?

A detailed guide on how to use our Time to Insight feature is available on request. If you have questions or would like to chat about the opportunity to be early on names in your investable universe, feel free to reach out to the Maiden Century Client Success team. We’re here to help you integrate these insights into your workflow and make the most of your alternative data strategies.

About Maiden Century
Maiden Century is an alternative data aggregation platform dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights for institutional investors. Our platform helps streamline and optimize the investment process through intuitive analytics, comprehensive datasets, and expert support. Visit maidencentury.com to learn more.

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